src.create_initial_states.task_build_full_params

Module Contents

Functions

task_create_full_params(depends_on, produces)
_make_mergable_with_params(dist, category)	Change the index and Series name to easily merge it to params.
_build_assort_params(contact_models, age_assort_params)
_build_reaction_params(contact_models)
_add_virus_strain_params(params)	Add parameters governing the infectiousness of the virus strains.
_add_vacation_model_distribution_params(params)
_add_work_rapid_test_params(params)	Add parameters governing the rapid test demand at work.
_add_educ_rapid_test_fade_in_params(params)	Add the shares how many people with educ contacts get a rapid test.
_add_private_rapid_test_demand_fade_in_params(params)	Add the share of people demanding a rapid test after a Covid household event.
_add_rapid_test_reaction_params(params)	Add rapid test reaction params.
_convert_index_to_int_where_possible(params)
_build_share_known_cases_params()
_convert_to_int_if_possible(x)	pd.to_numeric did not correctly work.
_add_event_params(params)

Attributes

EPI_PARAMS_PATH
_DEPENDENCIES

EPI_PARAMS_PATH

_DEPENDENCIES

task_create_full_params(depends_on, produces)

_make_mergable_with_params(dist, category)

Change the index and Series name to easily merge it to params.

Parameters

• dist (pandas.Series) – distribution of number of contacts. The index is the support, the values the probabilities.

• category (str) – name of the contact model to which the distribution belongs. This is set as the category index level of the returned Series.

Returns

Series with triple index category, subcategory, name.

the name index level is the support. the value column contains the probabilities.

Return type

pandas.Series

_build_assort_params(contact_models, age_assort_params)

_build_reaction_params(contact_models)

_add_virus_strain_params(params)

Add parameters governing the infectiousness of the virus strains.

source: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055

“We estimate that this variant has a 43–90% (range of 95% credible intervals 38–130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants”

We take the midpoint of 67%.

_add_vacation_model_distribution_params(params)

_add_work_rapid_test_params(params)

Add parameters governing the rapid test demand at work.

Only 60% of workers receiving a test offer accept it regularly (https://bit.ly/3t1z0lf (COSMO, 2021-04-21))

We assume rapid tests in firms on Jan 01 2021.

2021-03-17-19: 20% of employers offer weekly test (https://bit.ly/3eu0meK) second half of March: 23% of workers report test offer (https://bit.ly/3gANaan)

2021-04-05: 60% of workers get weekly test (https://bit.ly/2RWCDMz)

2021-04-15: 70% of workers expected to get weekly tests (https://bit.ly/32BqKhd) COSMO (https://bit.ly/3t1z0lf, 2021-04-20) report <2/3 of people having work contacts receiving a test offer. We summarize this as 2/3 getting a test.

2021-04-19: employers are required by law to offer two weekly tests (https://bit.ly/3tJNUh1, https://bit.ly/2QfNctJ) There is no data available on compliance or take-up yet.

_add_educ_rapid_test_fade_in_params(params)

Add the shares how many people with educ contacts get a rapid test.

Sources:

• 17-24 of March 2021 (Mon, 2021-03-22):

  • NRW had 80% tests for students before Easter (https://bit.ly/3u7z8Rx)

  • BY: test offers to educ_workers (https://bit.ly/3tbVX5u)

  • BW: only tests for educ workers (https://bit.ly/2S7251M)

  • federal level:

    “In Kitas und Schulen sollen die Testmöglichkeiten “mit der steigenden Verfügbarkeit von Schnell- und Selbsttests” ausgebaut werden” (https://bit.ly/3nuCSKi)

  • Some KiTa workers are being tested (https://bit.ly/3nyGyus)

  • Self tests for students in Berlin (https://bit.ly/2ScGu8m)

  • Schleswig-Holstein: test offer (https://bit.ly/3eVfkuv)

  • mandatory tests in Saxony (https://bit.ly/3eEQGhn)

  • no tests yet for students in Hessia, but already ordered (https://bit.ly/3gMGJB4)

  • Niedersachsen had one test week before Easter (https://bit.ly/3gOOC96)

  => assume 90% of teachers and 40% of students do rapid tests

• After Easter (2021-04-07):

  • NRW: tests are mandatory starting April 12th (https://bit.ly/3xqVbUn)

  • Bavaria: tests are mandatory for all (https://bit.ly/3nz5fXS, https://bit.ly/2QHilX3)

  • BW: voluntary tests for students (https://bit.ly/3vuetaD)

  • Brandenburg starts with tests (https://bit.ly/3xAihZB)

  • Schleswig-Holstein: mandatory tests (https://bit.ly/3eVfkuv)

  => assume 95% of teachers and 75% of students get tested

• BW: tests mandatory starting 2021-04-19 (https://bit.ly/3vuetaD)

  => assume 95% of teachers and 95% of students get tested

_add_private_rapid_test_demand_fade_in_params(params)

Add the share of people demanding a rapid test after a Covid household event.

Bürgertests started in mid March but demand was very low initially (https://bit.ly/3ehmGcj). Anecdotally, the demand continues to be limited.

First tests to self-administer became available starting March 6. However, supply was very limited in the beginning (https://bit.ly/3xJCIn8).

According to the COSMO study (https://bit.ly/2QSFAgR, 2021-05-25) 63% would have been willing to take a rapid test in the round of 23rd of February 2021 and 60% in mid December 2020 when an acquaintance would have tested positive. For own symptoms that share was 70%.

We assume that for Easter visits many people demanded tests for the first time and are more likely to test themselves after knowing where to get them.

_add_rapid_test_reaction_params(params)

Add rapid test reaction params.

source: The COSMO Study of 2021-03-09 (https://bit.ly/3gHlcKd) In section 3.5 “Verhalten nach positivem Selbsttest” 85% claim they would isolate (“isoliere mich und beschränke meine Kontakte bis zur Klärung”) => We use this multiplier of 0.15 here.

We assume households are only reduced by 30%, i.e. have a multiplier of 0.7.

_convert_index_to_int_where_possible(params)

_build_share_known_cases_params()

_convert_to_int_if_possible(x)

pd.to_numeric did not correctly work.

_add_event_params(params)