src.policies.enacted_policies

Module Contents

Functions

get_enacted_policies(contact_models)

Get enacted policies.

_get_enacted_work_policies(contact_models)

Get the enacted work policies.

_get_enacted_other_policies(contact_models)

Get enacted other policies.

_get_enacted_young_educ_policies(contact_models)

Get the educ policies for nurseries and preschools.

_get_enacted_school_policies(contact_models)

Get the policies for schools.

_get_school_options_for_a_b_for_most()

Get the educ_options starting March 15th until April 5th.

_get_school_options_for_a_b_schooling_for_primary_and_graduating_classes()

Get the school educ_options from February 22nd to March 15th.

_get_school_options_for_emergency_care_with_graduating_classes_having_a_b_schooling()

Get expanded emergency care with graduating classes in A/B schooling.

get_school_options_for_strict_emergency_care()

Attributes

HYGIENE_MULTIPLIER

Hygiene multiplier for educ and work models. Is in effect from November 2020 on.

OTHER_MULTIPLIER_SPECS

Specification for the other multipliers
HYGIENE_MULTIPLIER = 0.66[source]

Hygiene multiplier for educ and work models. Is in effect from November 2020 on.

OTHER_MULTIPLIER_SPECS = [['pre_fall_vacation', '2020-10-01', 0.75], ['fall_vacation', '2020-10-20', 1.0],...[source]

Specification for the other multipliers

get_enacted_policies(contact_models)[source]

Get enacted policies.

_get_enacted_work_policies(contact_models)[source]

Get the enacted work policies.

This uses the google mobility data as proxy for the share of individuals working in home office. The last value is extrapolated into the future.

_get_enacted_other_policies(contact_models)[source]

Get enacted other policies.

These multipliers are on top of the implemented seasonality.

_get_enacted_young_educ_policies(contact_models)[source]

Get the educ policies for nurseries and preschools.

The multiplier for the emergency care around the Christmas holidays is based on the data for the 1st half of January where many parents might have still had vacations. 1 in 10 primary children attend in emergency care (source only for Bavaria, mid January: https://bit.ly/3sGHZbJ). We assume this is similar for preschools and nurseries.

  • “jan_and_feb_2021”:

    • Jump from ~25% to 33% between first Jan week and later.

    • source: https://bit.ly/3uGL1Pb

    • This could be a vacation effect with more parents returning to work.

  • “feb_22_to_mid_march”:
  • “mid_march_to_easter”:

    • NRW: preschools and nurseries are open (https://bit.ly/3nSkUBM)

    • BW: emergency care after March 17 (https://bit.ly/3useyeP)

    • BY: emergency care in counties with incidences >100 starting March 15 (https://bit.ly/2PRtaW0), the incidence in BY was >100 for most of that time frame.

      => assume generous emergency care. This is errs on the side of reducing

      contacts too much.

-“easter_until_april_25”:
  • “summer” (last updated 2021-05-22):

    • BY (https://bit.ly/3oF6Go3): normal until 165. emergency care above.

      Over the time frame the share of counties above 165 drops from 48% to 4%.

      => assume preschools and nurseries are open normally.

_get_enacted_school_policies(contact_models)[source]

Get the policies for schools.

  • “christmas_lockdown”:

    This is based on the data for the 1st half of January where many parents might have still had vacations. 1 in 10 primary children attend in emergency care (source only for BY, mid January: https://bit.ly/3sGHZbJ) This abstracts from graduating classes opening early in some states, such as Berlin (11 of Jan, https://bit.ly/385iCZk).

  • “jan_and_feb_2021”:

    In the second half of January, approx. 1 / 3 of children below secondary level were in emergency care.

    Sources:

    In addition, many states opened graduating classes. We open them at the federal level in A / B schooling on Jan 16th. This abstracts from variety:

    sources:

  • “feb_22_to_mid_march”:
    Schools open for primary students

    and graduating classes in A/B while maintaining emergency care for children with high educ_contact_priority (>0.9 for secondary students <13 and >0.66 for primary students).

    Summary of actual policies of states with >=8 mio inhabitants:

    • BW: Primary schools open Feb 22nd. Graduating classes attend.

    • BY: Primary schools open Feb 22nd. Graduating classes attend.

    • NRW: Primary schools and graduating classes start Feb 22nd, A/B or full depending on local incidecne (https://bit.ly/3uSp6Ey)

  • “mid_march_to_easter”:
    • BY:

      • source: https://bit.ly/3lOZowy

      • <50 incidence: normal schooling

      • 50-100 incidence: A/B schooling

      • >100 incidence: distance for all except graduation classes

    • BW:

      • source: https://km-bw.de/Coronavirus (accessed: March 25th)

      • primaries and 5th, 6th grade open normally since 15/3

      • graduating classes open since 22/2

      • rest continues distance learning

    • NRW:
    -> We simplify to A/B schooling for everyone plus emergency care

    and graduating classes.

  • “easter_until_may”:

    This covers April 6-30. Starting April 26th the Bundesnotbremse is in place. That means when counties have a >165 incidence schools only offer classes to graduating classes and emergency care. (https://bit.ly/3aUd2KC) Since BY has a lower cutoff and cases only fell below 165 around May 1, we assume generous emergency care for everyone.

    • BY:

      • source: https://bit.ly/2QmRNu0, https://bit.ly/32FlgBQ (2021-04-22)

      • incidence <100: A/B for everyone

      • incidence >100: 4th grade and graduating classes in A/B schooling. emergency care for rest.

      • mean incidence >130 and increasing over the whole time

    • NRW:

      ⁻ sources: https://bit.ly/3nxGZWb - only graduating classes, not in A/B mode

    => We summarize this as a return to graduating classes in A/B plus generous emergceny care (i.e. same as 2nd half of January).

  • “may2021”:

    Starting April 26th the Bundesnotbremse is in place. That means when counties have a >165 incidence schools only offer classes to graduating classes and emergency care. (https://bit.ly/3aUd2KC)

    => Simplified, one could say we have A/B < 165 and emergency care >165.

    The share of the population in counties with >165 incidence falls from 50% to 2.5% between April 25th and May 15th. We assume A/B for everyone.

  • “june2021”: (last updated May 22nd)
  • “summer”: (last updated May 22nd)
_get_school_options_for_a_b_for_most()[source]

Get the educ_options starting March 15th until April 5th.

Situation:

  • BY:

    • source: https://bit.ly/3lOZowy

    • <50 incidence: normal schooling

    • 50-100 incidence: A/B schooling

    • >100 incidence: distance for all except graduation classes

  • BW:

    • source: https://km-bw.de/Coronavirus (accessed: March 25th)

    • primaries and 5th, 6th grade open normally since 15/3

    • graduating classes open since 22/2

    • rest continues distance learning

  • NRW:
-> We simplify this to A/B schooling for everyone plus emergency care

and graduating classes

_get_school_options_for_a_b_schooling_for_primary_and_graduating_classes()[source]

Get the school educ_options from February 22nd to March 15th.

Schools open for primary students and graduating classes in A/B while maintaining emergency care for children with high educ_contact_priority (>0.9 for secondary students <13 and >0.66 for primary students).

Summary of actual policies of states with >=8 mio inhabitants:

  • BW: primary schools open Feb 22nd. Graduating classes attend.

  • BY: primary schools open Feb 22nd. Graduating classes attend.

  • NRW: Primaries and graduating classes start Feb 22nd, A/B or full depending on local incidence

Sources:
_get_school_options_for_emergency_care_with_graduating_classes_having_a_b_schooling()[source]

Get expanded emergency care with graduating classes in A/B schooling.

This is what was in effect in the 2nd half of January.

In the second half of January, approx. 1 / 3 of children below secondary level were in emergency care

sources:

In addition, many states opened graduating classes. We open them at the federal level in A / B schooling on Jan 16th. This abstracts from state variety:

sources:

get_school_options_for_strict_emergency_care()[source]